Steve Kornacki's guide to the Kentucky Derby: Biggest storylines and best bets

18, Jul 2026

Finding a winning ticket in this Derby may come down to embracing uncertainty. With no standout favorite, the smartest play could lie beyond the obvious choices.

While a strong case can be made for the two favorites Saturday, chaos can often take over at the Kentucky Derby.

While a strong case can be made for the two favorites Saturday, chaos can often take over at the Kentucky Derby.Justine Goode / NBC News; Getty Images

May 1, 2026, 6:05 AM EDT / Updated May 1, 2026, 2:35 PM EDT

There’s no other horse race in the country like the Kentucky Derby. And that’s especially true when it comes to wagering. With 20 horses running and all of America watching, it means massive sums of money are being bet in all directions — with the possibility of a memorable payday if you can sort through the field and find a winner.

logo

Just a moment.

We are getting your experience ready.

Top Stories

 View All
Maryland man faces attempted murder charges after allegedly showing up at OMB Director Russell Vought's home last year

NBC News Maryland man faces attempted murder charges after allegedly showing up at OMB Director Russell Vought's home last year

NBC News

Thieves disguised as construction workers pull off $3.2 million New York City jewelry and safe heist
NPR

Trump vows to expand his review of U.S. museums. Can he do that?
NBC News

Graham Platner suspends Senate campaign as Maine Democrats vie to replace him
NBC News

Cracks emerge in GOP support for Trump’s agenda: From the Politics Desk
FBI subpoenas election records in Arizona, expanding 2020 inquiry NBC News FBI subpoenas election records in Arizona, expanding 2020 inquiry 10 hours ago
Rectal cancer deaths rising rapidly among millennials: 'It's a medical crisis.' NBC News Rectal cancer deaths rising rapidly among millennials: 'It's a medical crisis.' 10 hours ago
Wave of anti-immigrant violence erupts after brutal stabbing in Belfast NBC News Wave of anti-immigrant violence erupts after brutal stabbing in Belfast 14 hours ago
I have three kids under five and these are the best screen-free toys that keep them entertained the entire trip NBC News I have three kids under five and these are the best screen-free toys that keep them entertained the entire trip 14 hours ago
Speaker Johnson's ever-growing headaches: From the Politics Desk NBC News Speaker Johnson's ever-growing headaches: From the Politics Desk 18 hours ago
New FIFA rule says women's teams must have a woman on leadership staff NBC News New FIFA rule says women's teams must have a woman on leadership staff 18 hours ago
Steve Kornacki's guide to the Kentucky Derby: Biggest storylines and best bets NBC News Steve Kornacki's guide to the Kentucky Derby: Biggest storylines and best bets 18 hours ago
Greetings from Chiloé Island, Chile, where the fast-moving tides are part of local lore NPR Greetings from Chiloé Island, Chile, where the fast-moving tides are part of local lore 18 hours ago
Primary care doctors raise alarm as telehealth companies get involved in obesity drugs NPR Primary care doctors raise alarm as telehealth companies get involved in obesity drugs 22 hours ago
Americans exposed to hantavirus remain in quarantine as testing and monitoring for symptoms continue NBC News Americans exposed to hantavirus remain in quarantine as testing and monitoring for symptoms continue 22 hours ago
A warm World Cup welcome? U.S. immigration policies have chilling effect NPR A warm World Cup welcome? U.S. immigration policies have chilling effect 22 hours ago